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BCR's Daily Fishwrap Report for October 7, 2009

Liveblog: Primary election results; BCR calls Clement, Cole-McFadden projected winners, fight is for 2nd place

9:30pm: With all but provisionals in, it looks like Drew's got second place in Ward 2. He's got a 91 vote lead over Williams, and we expect there to be no more than a few dozen provisionals.

Tarantino and Drew got extremely similar vote numbers. We'll want to delve in more on a precinct basis to look for patterns.

The presence of Howell, Little and Williams all in Ward 2 is probably the deciding factor moving Drew forward. If Howell hadn't run, assuming Williams and Little in some ways split most of those votes (which seems likely, as Howell voters likely weren't Clement fans), one or both might've overtaken the Libertarian candidate Drew in this race.

Will be away from keyboard for a bit; no more updates for now unless there are surprises.

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8:55pm: Drew has an 84 vote lead over Sylvester Williams with probably ~200 votes outstanding. Unless Lowes Grove or Waterford Village surprises, Drew has taken second place.

Also, Hughes has been a lock on 2nd for some time now. No movement for Tarantino.

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8:50pm: While we await the remainder of votes, a curious note.

Clement -- the candidate who pulled the Durham Committee's endorsement, and all three local PAC endorsements -- is faring worse (by 10% or so) than Cole-McFadden, who was passed over by the DCABP for Hughes.

Cumulatively, Williams, Little and Howell are polling almost 28% in their ward, vs. 17.5% for Hughes in his ward.

No answers for that one yet -- save a potentially weaker incumbent in Clement? -- but it's worth diving into.

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8:40pm: 93% in; Lowes Grove, Southwest Elem. still out along with Triangle Church, Waterford Village Apts. Williams has passed Little for 3rd place, but Drew up by 65 votes.

With 425 votes or so outstanding -- turnout now 4.56% -- we think Drew can hold on for second place, since Williams would need a good chunk of the remaining votes to get second. But this one is definitely not over yet.

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8:35pm: 86% of votes in; Cole-McFadden tight at 70%, Clement at 60%. Drew has a 41 vote lead over Little for 2nd place, and a 71 vote lead over Williams.

Donald Hughes' lead over Tarantino seems strong so far -- though the Hughes campaign still would seem to face a daunting challenge going into November.

In other news, 293 souls voted for Sandra Howell so far.

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8:32pm: 76 percent [of votes] in the big parade... with a hundred and ten Matt Drews in the wings! Sorry, no more Broadway show numbers, we'll leave that to the DPAC.

And with that turnout, Hughes has a 190 vote lead on Tarantino. Little has ~30 votes over Williams; Drew leads Little by 50 votes.

Drew's strong showing has to be the story of the night. Picking up on Frank Hyman's post, it will be interesting to see just where Drew and Tarantino poll the strongest.

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8:25pm: Now 60% of precincts. 71% Cole-McFadden, 17% Hughes, 13% Tarantino. Little/Drew/Williams in that order separated by less than two-thirds of a percentage point -- just 25 votes.

Turnout's dropped to 5.27%. There may only be 3,500 or so more votes to count tonight, a little over 4,000 are in. Both incumbents hold 2,000 (Clement) or 2,200 (Cole-McFadden) leads -- meaning that one of their challengers would have to get two-thirds of the remaining votes (without splitting with other candidates) to win.

Those are Hamid Karzai or Saddam Hussein rigged election numbers (that is, the odds of getting that kind of late boost). This one's over for first place; BCR calls it for the incumbents.

The game now is for second place and a chance to continue into November.

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8:15pm: If the numbers hold, we're looking at about 9,750 voters turning out to vote. Watch this figure and the turnout percentage as more precincts come in. Once you hit a certain threshold, it becomes mathematically improbable for a challenger to move up; at a later point, it's a mathematical impossibility barring extreme TO in a few precincts.

At 49% of precincts, it's looking like we're nearing that point. 72% Cole-McFadden still; 63% Clement. Sylvester Williams has gained, though, to 10.55% -- separated by 0.5% from Little, with Drew between.

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8:10pm: Numbers are holding through 41% turnout. Tarantino edging in a bit on Hughes. Little, Drew still close in Ward 2.

White Rock is included in those numbers. Turnout is at 6.96% through these first precincts.

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8:05pm: With 31% of precincts in, the incumbents look to be in strong shape -- so far -- in the municipal election.

In Ward 1, Cora Cole-McFadden has 72% of votes to Donald Hughes' 17%; Tarantino brings 10.5%.

In Ward 2, Howard Clement sees 63% of the votes, with Darius Little nearing 12% and Matt Drew at 11%.

It's not the most representative of precinct mixes, weighted towards activist in-town West Durham progressive neighborhoods -- but it does include the early voting site as well as a range of 'round town spots as well.

More as the numbers come in.

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