Mayor's race prediction: Bell, by a whisker
October 29, 2007
Today, a look at the mayor's race, and our prediction on what to look for in the election coming up two weeks from now. Don't miss your chance to win a $25 gift certificate in BCR's predict-the-mayor's-race contest; see below for details.
The mayoral race is far more intriguing than the Council election at this point in the contest. The Durham Committee's endorsement (which seemed, for a time, in doubt) will certainly help Bell, as will that of the People's Alliance; without both, his campaign would be in very difficult straits indeed. Also of interest is Sheriff Worth Hill's endorsement of Bell, a feather in the cap against the challenger's positioning as the only candidate who can stop crime in the Bull City.
But is this enough to win the election?
Conventional wisdom holds that s/he who wins the most PAC endorsement, wins. Yet a number of factors make this race different. As has been discussed at length here, however, this election has marked a departure from traditional Durham campaigning, with automated phone robo-calls, intensive direct mailings, and TV ads for the Thomas Stith effort blanketing the city. And Bill Bell hasn't really faced any challenges getting elected since he defeated Nick Tennyson six years ago to initially win the mayor's seat.
In the 2001 race, Bell was crushed by Nick Tennyson by a six-to-one factor in the North Durham polling places that came out strong for Funderburk and the conservative slate this time around. How will Bell do this time around, with the benefits and baggage of incumbency upon him? And how will turnout impact the outcome, given that Durham has grown substantially in the past six years, particularly in South Durham?
BCR's prediction: Ultimately, this race comes to two key issues, namely, Stith's performance in high-growth areas, and overall turnout.
Stith and high-growth suburban Durham: The outcome of next week's election is fairly predictable in at least two parts of the Bull City. Taken as a whole, the neighborhoods to the west and east of downtown and Duke, so-called central Durham, seem likely to come out strong for Bell. BCR predicts Bell will pull 60-65%+ of the vote in the middle part of the city. Portions of North Durham will likely at least flip that number; we predict Stith may pull down 75% in some of the districts.
The real question mark here is South Durham, which represented one-third of votes in the primary. Progressive incumbents like Catotti and Brown still did well here, but conservative candidates did relatively well, too. The big question here for Bell is the lack of context and history in many neighborhoods here, given the rapid population growth in southern Durham in the past few years. In these neighborhoods, Bell's thirty years of experience may not be a strength -- to the contrary, it could work strongly against the incumbent, given recent missteps in several City departments.
Holding turnout constant from the primary across regions, if the assumptions above about how Bell and Stith will do in central and northern Durham are right, Stith has to draw 60% or more of the Southpoint/Hope Valley districts in order to win. As long as Bell plays Stith to a draw or a close loss, he should have enough support in central Durham to eke out a win.
Turnout: Of course, all of this analysis assumes that the turnout patters are unchanged from the primary. Each candidate has their own hurdles to overcome where this is concerned.
For Bell, the Committee's endorsement does him very little good if there isn't decent turnout, particularly in the largely-black neighborhoods east of downtown. (Witness, therefore, the focus on community development efforts and anti-crime cameras in North-East Central Durham and other neighboring areas announced this week.) Turnout in East Durham needs to at least match the relative proportions seen in the primary. If Bell and the Democratic Party can really turn out the votes and raise the turnout among their base, re-election is sewn up.
On the other hand, from Stith's perspective the get-out-the-vote effort in North and South Durham is critical to secure a victory. North Durham seems likely to turn up the participation level over the primary. South Durham is a bigger question. Are voters in South Durham motivated for change in City government, and will they turn out in greater numbers than in the October contest? Or are they more disconnected from the election than the more traditionally civic-connected folks in central Durham?
Bottom line: when you factor in the voting habits of One Vote early participants (who mirrored west-central Durham trends), you had a roughly 50-50 split between central Durham and Durham's combined southern and northern periphery. If the turnout split swings away from central Durham districts by 5-7% or more, Stith is likely to win the whole shebang.
...
My bottom line number? Bell 50.4%, Stith 49.6% in a squeaker with moderate turnout.
Your bottom line number? Leave your prediction (and your thoughts) in the comments, to one decimal point. Whoever comes closest wins a $25 gift certificate to a local Durham restaurant, courtesy of the Bull City Rising blog.
Bell 54.0, Stith 46.0
Posted by: durhamfood | October 29, 2007 at 09:06 AM
I agree with most of what you've predicted. Stith's campaign though, I believe, might have turn off more than he's turned on. So I don't think it is going to be that much of a squeeker. 60.1% Bell, 39.9 Stith.
Posted by: Will | October 29, 2007 at 09:21 AM
Bell 57.9 Stith 42.1
Posted by: Nicole | October 29, 2007 at 10:29 AM
Bell 52%, Stith 48%
Posted by: megan | October 29, 2007 at 10:59 AM
Bell 54.8, Stith 45.2
Posted by: Steve | October 29, 2007 at 11:12 AM
Stith 51.2, Bell 48.8
Posted by: Michael | October 29, 2007 at 11:17 AM
Bell 52.5, Stith 47.5
Posted by: miles | October 29, 2007 at 11:17 AM
Bell 50.0 to Stith 50.0
;)
Posted by: crc32 | October 29, 2007 at 12:39 PM
Stith : 52.5% Bell 47.5%
Posted by: Natalie | October 29, 2007 at 01:23 PM
Stith 100.0% Bell 0.0%
Posted by: 9/9 | October 29, 2007 at 01:30 PM
Bell 64.5%, Stith 35.5
Posted by: James Martin | October 29, 2007 at 01:55 PM
Bell 61; Stith 39
and by the way...what is Stith doing with that $200K he's raised? i haven't seen any advertising besides those flyers. have you?
Posted by: Lee | October 29, 2007 at 02:02 PM
Bell 65, Stith 45
Posted by: Matt Haleete | October 29, 2007 at 02:03 PM
Matt - check your math.
Lee - push polls and other phone stuff. Some TV ads as well. I'd expect to see at least one more mailing between now and next Monday.
9/9 - good thing you didn't have to pay to enter this contest, eh?
my prediction - Bell 56.5 Stith 43.5
overall turnout 24%
Posted by: barry | October 29, 2007 at 02:09 PM
Glad no-one's taken mine yet:
Bell 52.3% - Stith 47.7%
Posted by: Celeste | October 29, 2007 at 03:19 PM
Bell: 55.1
Stith: 44.9
Posted by: bj | October 29, 2007 at 05:21 PM
Bell 66.1, Stith 33.9. (You didn't say "closest without going over", did you? ;-)
Posted by: Phil | October 29, 2007 at 06:28 PM
Stith steals it by a chad.
Posted by: Hovercraft | October 30, 2007 at 06:24 AM
No way it's that close. South Durham just won't turn out.
Bell 58%, Stith 41%, random write-ins 1%
Posted by: Michael Bacon | October 30, 2007 at 09:47 AM
Bell 53.4, Stith 46.6
Posted by: VoteDemocratic | October 30, 2007 at 04:52 PM
Bell 61% Stith 39%
Posted by: mike | October 30, 2007 at 06:34 PM
Bell 51%
Stith 48%
Random Write Ins (Jackie, Rev Whatever, etc.) 1%
Posted by: Justin Clark | October 31, 2007 at 01:22 PM
Bell 54.6
Stith 45.4
Posted by: peanutbutter | November 01, 2007 at 10:38 AM
Bell 54.1
Stith 44.4
Random write-ins: 1.5
Posted by: jacob | November 01, 2007 at 03:11 PM
Bell 53.2
Stith 46.6
Scott 0.2
Posted by: Steve Unruhe | November 03, 2007 at 06:21 PM
61.3% Bell 38.4% Stith .3% Other
Posted by: Lenore Ramm | November 03, 2007 at 09:38 PM
Stith 53.5% Bell 46.5%
Posted by: Adam | November 03, 2007 at 10:14 PM
Just saw that there was a deadline that I missed. My projections as of now differ slightly from what they might have been a couple of days ago, mostly because of the new "Don't Be Fooled" signs that have popped up around Durham. But I can't ignore that 80/20 sampling...probably puts Bell up another couple of points than what I'd have had him at before reading today's BCR post. So, just for kicks, and no gift certificate, I realize (unless you want to open it back up, let people revise their numbers???)
Bell 57.4% | Stith 41.9% | Other 0.7%
Posted by: Toastie | November 04, 2007 at 01:23 AM