On cross lacrosse discourse
Update: Positions unchanged with 96.6% of precincts reporting

Breaking news: Parrish, Peterson trail with 86% of precincts in

Just in from the Durham County Board of Elections web site:

With 51 of 59 precincts reporting, Diane Catotti, Eugene Brown and Farad Ali have the top three slots in the primary race, with Ali holding an 800 vote lead (out of 11,647 counted so far) over his nearest competition. Laney Funderburk is holding fourth place, while Steve Monks and David Harris are hanging in at fifth and sixth, respectively (and separated by just 10 votes).

At this time, Melodie Parrish is holding seventh place and Victoria Peterson eighth. Peterson trails Harris by 700 votes (she holds 2,321 to date); given the low turnout in this election and the fact that the remaining precincts are fairly evenly distributed throughout the City, it seems unlikely either of these two candidates could catch up (either would need to receive almost all the expected outstanding votes.)

More as the numbers firm up, but at this point, it looks like the top six are set going into November. We'll have updates throughout the night at BCR.

Full provisional results below the cut.


SUMMARY REPORT        Durham County, North Carolina    UNOFFICIAL RESULTS
Run Date:10/09/07     Municipal Primary Election
RUN TIME:07:59 PM     October 9, 2007

                                                       VOTES PERCENT

           PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 59) .  .  .  .  .        51   86.44
           REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL .  .  .  .  .   121,026
           BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL.  .  .  .  .  .  .    11,647
           VOTER TURNOUT - TOTAL  .  .  .  .  .  .              9.62

          CITY-WIDE COUNCIL MEMBER DURHAM
          You may vote for  3
              (WITH 50 OF 58 PRECINCTS COUNTED 86.21%)
           Joe Williams  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,334    4.07
           David Thompson, Jr. .  .  .  .  .  .  .       543    1.66
           Victoria Peterson.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,321    7.08
           Melodie Parrish  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,511    7.66
           Steve Monks.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,038    9.27
           David Harris  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,028    9.24
           Laney Funderburk .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,586   10.95
           Diane Catotti .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     6,575   20.07
           Eugene A. Brown  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     5,447   16.63
           Farad Ali  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     4,379   13.37
                   Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    32,762

Comments

Chaz

go here for the live feed:

http://www.durhamcountync.gov/departments/elec/2007_Election/Results/Primary/Results_Update/SCROLL_Primary_Results_Summary.cfm

barry

Gotta say i'm surprised by Steve Monks' showing. I assumed his base of support in the Republican Party would not be so forgiving of his write-in campaign for Durham DA last year, which essentially gave the office to Mike Nifong, even though he had less than a majority of the vote.

Chaz

This is a real good final 6 for the Democratic Party -- they can now push three candidates all the way. And it's a good field for David Harris's chances at picking up the upside from the eliminated candidates. You've got to figure Farad Ali will pick up some new Republican votes from Parrish, and probably some of the Dem voters flushed out by the party between now and the general election, but he's already got the black vote (as defined by the Committee) counted in his total. But I think David Harris has a really good chance of benefiting from a higher Dem Party turn-out, and picking up a lot of the black vote that went to the bottom three finishers,and even some of the Republican votes that went to Parrish. This is where being in the middle will help him a lot.

It'll be a whole different rsce with the field we have left, and you know the Committee will never endorse Harris in the second round now that it's likely the person he has a chance at picking off is Ali. This is where the money will come in -- Harris will need to raise enough to get more name recognition. Right now Ali has spent something like six times his amount.

Golden

Why do you think Ali will pick up Republican votes? If you read his website he explains his choice to go non-partisan. Sometimes being affiliated with a party makes you bound to viewpoints that dont actually reflect you ( ie Peterson claiming Democrat when she clearly doesnt have those viewpoints...she was banking on people voting by party and not by platform )

If Ali came in 3rd as an unknown in a low turnout situation, he has a great chance of getting a seat come Nov...Harris has name recognition ( thats how he got the PAC endorsement )but maybe not enough for people to choose him over Ali...

Chaz

I think Ali might pick up some Republican votes because there will be only two Republican candidates on the final ballot, but Republicans can vote for three candidates -- if they want to use all of their votes but don't want to vote for a Democrat, Ali is the only other choice.

On the other hand, Harris has some Republican support because of his law and order experience and he's helped out some Republican neighborhoods while on the InterNeighborhood Council.

In the end, it may be a wash between them as to who picks up any of those votes and it will come down to turn-out, who sticks with their affiliation and, I've just got to say it: how much being affiliated with Bill Bell as a Dem will hurt Harris. I think it will be a factor.

Chaz

I think Ali might pick up some Republican votes because there will be only two Republican candidates on the final ballot, but Republicans can vote for three candidates -- if they want to use all of their votes but don't want to vote for a Democrat, Ali is the only other choice.

On the other hand, Harris has some Republican support because of his law and order experience and he's helped out some Republican neighborhoods while on the InterNeighborhood Council.

In the end, it may be a wash between them as to who picks up any of those votes and it will come down to turn-out, who sticks with their affiliation and, I've just got to say it: how much being affiliated with Bill Bell as a Dem will hurt Harris. I think it will be a factor.

barry

I'd say that Harris' name recognition is more within the activist community than the population at large, so he may have a chance to increase that in the next month.

As far as Republican votes go, i would think there's a better chance of either Monks or Funderburk moving up if their voters choose not to cast a third ballot choice.

I'd like to ask why, though, you think that being associated with Bill Bell will hurt Harris?

Chaz

With deep, deep guilt at somehow double posting (I can only hope Kevin will forgive me) I think the results of this election, especially Steve Monks making the cut and Funderburk's total, shows that Stith is making inroads in encouraging dissatisfaction with the status quo (i.e., the Democratic Party). It looks like the Republicans had a turn-out close to 20% in this primary (there are 18,000 registered total in Durham) which is more then their usual outpacing of the Dems, so they're being motivated by something. It might be a sign of trouble for Bell. And if he is in trouble, even a little, I'm not sure it's good for a candidate who needs to make up a lot of room to be too closely affiliated with him during the GOTV phase.

Michael Bacon

I think reading too much into the exact order of these results is a recipe for going mad. I think many progressives looked at the tickets and saw that there was little chance their four weren't going to make it into the final round, and probably forgot to vote.

On the other hand, the GOP was hyper-motivated to try to get their folks into the next round. Monks proved in the Nifong vote that there's a good, what, 9% of the county willing to stick with him even when it makes no sense. The only one of the GOP 3, er, 2 with any shot whatsoever of winning is Funderburk.

My guess is that when the big GOTV machines crank up for the general, the endorsements will once again show their force. If the Friends and the PA don't change, I think it basically means Cattoti and Brown have their victories locked up, and then you've got a three-way race between Funderburk, Harris, and Ali for the last spot, each bringing a single endorsement to the table. The danger of a progressive split between Harris and Ali means that a Funderburk victory becomes a real possibility, which against a single progressive candidate would never be possible.

barry

interesting. i rather think that the Republicans have peaked, and the mayor's race will bring more Bell supporters out than Stith supporters.

Of course, that will depend on the quality of the campaign that Bell runs. He seems to have raised a fair bit of money, although not as much as Stith. Let's see how he spends it.

Bunny

David Harris has endorsements from both the People's Alliance and The Independent. The PA always has people handing out voting guides at the general election, and most progressives who don't know much about the candidates usually abide by The Independent's recommendations.

David needs to step up his visibility and name recognition, and I think the Democratic Party will be able to help with that now that the primary is over and there are three solid Democrats to promote in GOTV efforts.

David needs money! Send him some!

Ali has charisma, but I think David's solid 35 years of community activism will help him in the end.

We can't discount Funderburk and his Duke contacts with bucks, so that makes a strong Democratic GOTV effort even more important.

justinbclark

i'm curious as to why you think that the republican party has peaked....

barry

As a percentage of ballots cast yesterday, Republican candidates were named on anywhere from 20% of the ballots (Melodie Parrish) to 28% (Laney Funderburk). (By contrast, Catotti was named on 57% of the ballots cast, and Eugene Brown on just under 50%. The numbers given by the BoE are normalized to reflect that each ballot actually counts for as many as three votes, and that some voters only select one or two candidates. You can roughly multiply BoE's percentages by 3 to get a close approximation of how many people named an individual candidate on their ballot.)

Registered Republicans only make up about 15% of the Durham electorate. I suspect that the numbers for Funderburk and Monks in the general will be closer to that percentage than where they were yesterday.

I could be wrong, but i also think that Stith's extremely negative campaign is into going to go over very well if he keeps that up through the rest of October. Depending on how closely he ties himself to the remaining Republican candidates, they could see some fallout from that as well.

barry

that should read "not going to go over very well" in the last paragraph above.

Chaz

I felt the Republicans peaked in the primary as a percentage of the vote simply because the Democratic Party vote was split between 6 candidates -- and in the general election, they'll only have three candidates... And any semblance of this being a non-partisan election went out the window with that sign containing all three Republican candidates' names (that and Stith getting 100K from mostly Republican sources).

By the way: don't they have to take those triplet yard signs down now, since Melodie Parrish is on them and losing candidates are required to take their signs down within a week, I think it is?

Barry

"(City only) Signs erected in connections with elections, referenda, or current political events provided that they do not exceed six square feet per sign in area and are no more than four feet in height. The signs shall be located so as not to obstruct drivers' vision clearances at intersections. Such signs may be posted 45 days prior to an election and shall be removed within 15 days after the election or cessation of
candidacy by any candidate no longer participating in the election, whichever comes
first. Along State rights-of-way such signs may require permits from NCDOT."

I was going to post about this tomorrow. I assume that Parrish counts as a "candidate no longer participating in the election" so that the Republican team signs will need to be down within another two weeks.

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