Young professionals survey: economics, crime and public schools matter -- but who's engaged, and who isn't?

One of the consistent themes in Durham politics, like anywhere, is that those who show up get what they want in most cases.

In Durham, that's often political action committees (PACs), the triumvirate of the liberal People's Alliance, the business-friendly/conservative Friends of Durham, and the long-lived Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People.

While these three groups enjoy significant influence in town, their most prominent faces -- with some exceptions -- come from a generation of leaders who are often forty-plus years old.

So this election cycle, Durhamite Nate Goetz decided to take a look at what young professionals say matters to them, conducting a survey under the aegis of his start-up Triangle Research Partners, a firm that provides research support to non-profits.

The survey's mission: to find out what issues concern 20-40 year old professionals in the Bull City, and how engaged they are with civic life in town already.

The results: the five dozen or so respondents to the pre-election survey strongly see economic opportunity, crime and safety, and public schools as their big concerns. (Download the survey now.)

While the survey makes for interesting reading, ironically, the ZIP codes of respondents -- a quarter in central Durham's 27701 urban 'hoods, almost a third in 27713's South Durham enclave -- suggests to this observer that some of the factors of concern to self-identified young professionals may serve as barriers for development of residents and neighborhoods alike.

From a political perspective, the results show that few of the young professionals responding -- just 5% of the small sample size -- are involved with one of Durham's three PACs. 30% said that PAC endorsements mattered to them in their voting plans, while 80% planned to vote in the November election.

Goetz's survey broke down the top responses overall to the question of what issues they wished to see elected officials address:

• Crime & Safety: Gangs, “broken window” behavior, drugs, neighborhood safety, library safety
• Growth & Sustainability: Affordability, desire to benefit all citizens, responsible growth, gentrification, investment in infrastructure
• Public School Improvement: Disparities between schools, increase charter school options, increase community involvement

Looking at the concerns by region, from the aggregated list of top neighborhood concerns in some of Durham's ZIP codes, it's interesting to see what crops up in different regions of the City:

27701 (Central Durham): Safety and schools appear frequently; so do bike/pedestrian features like sidewalks, and by extension a desire to see pedestrian-accessible neighborhood businesses, restaurants and the like. Traffic calming and enforcement appear several times, as do concerns on poverty and equity.

27703 (Eastern Durham Co.): Complaints about a lack of shopping options (save for a couple of Food Lions) from a couple of neighborhoods, along with concerns over the car-centric, high-speed routes like NC 98, Sherron Rd. and the like.

27705 (Northwest Durham): City services like streets and sidewalks feature prominently, along with interest in renovating parks and recreation facilities, and whether all parts of the Bull City get a fair shake.

27707 (South-Central Durham): Crime reduction and property values appear quite a bit, but do so questions of support for economic development, diversity and opportunity.

27713 (South Durham): Safety and crime appeared on almost every neighborhood's list, with property values appearing on several's lists. Road maintenance and growth/development pressures also appeared a few times, as do school quality.

For all the differences between the concerns that crop up between the ZIP codes, the ZIPs tend to share some overarching characteristics: disproportionately Caucasian areas of the city. (Even the 27703 responses tend to come from down NC 98, not the heart of East Durham proper.)

"We would have liked to have seen more representation of Durham, especially ethnicity and by neighborhood/ZIP code," Goetz said, calling the results "heavily weighted" towards majority-white areas.

77% of respondents identified as white or Caucasian versus 16% African-American, numbers that over- and under-represent respectively the 40-45% stakes each race has in the Bull City.

It's a variation that likely says more about opportunity, disparity and civic engagement than about the survey itself.

"I think that [the response gap] needs to be talked about, not just because of a gap in the survey, but more importantly, in a gap in understanding the needs of those individuals, those neighborhoods, and also getting young professionals of color more engaged in the dialogue on how to make Durham a better place," Goetz said.

Goetz said as a Durhamite, he was unsurprised by "the real clear message" that crime/safety, economic growth and sustainability, and public schools were the top three -- with a big gap to transportation as the next-most important issue.

Downtown revitalization ranked fifth.

He also noted that qualitatively, the survey uncovered a range of concerns over community-building, from concerns that young professionals' neighbors weren't felt to be engaging, with the community in general at times or with each other.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

In an interview with Goetz last week, I noted (and we discussed) that I wonder whether there are age and geography factors at play here -- as well as the impact of Durham's image on a young professionals community that often consists of transplants.

For instance, in my neighborhood (Trinity Park), I see lots of neighbors turn out for community events, the neighborhood association meetings and the like. Yet they tend to be in the forty-plus crowd, not younger neighbors as much.

Similarly, I often wonder about the current "most popular" 'hoods like Woodcroft and Hope Valley Farms, that tend to attract a disproportionate number of grad students looking to perch for a few years at Duke, NCCU or UNC (often with a trailing spouse who finds work in Durham, RTP or Raleigh.)

To wit: are the young professionals who move to Durham looking to stay long-term and to engage? If not, can they be motivated to connect?

And do concerns about school quality and crime -- particularly in university hotspots like 27701 and 27713 -- reflect just a mirror image of those complaints that these temporary newcomers heard so frequently when a real estate agent or colleague was showing them around town?

Goetz agreed these could be factors, noting a number of responses especially from 27713'ers who left blank specific items they wanted to see the City Council take on, suggesting perhaps a lack of engagement.

"They really did not go into too much depth on issues that they feel impacted by, either in their neighborhood or especially in the City," Goetz said.

And while this is more qualitative than quantitative, Goetz agreed with my hypothesis that Durham's lessening, but still present, image challenges could play a role in some of the perceptions and responses among South Durhamites.

He noted he and his wife had to "twist the arm" of their real estate agent to get her to show them Durham when they relocated to the Bull City.

"She took us to Southpoint, and the best story I've got is, we were sitting at a traffic light at Herndon and Fayetteville, and we had our windows down, and she told us sternly to roll them up because there were a lot of gangs in that area," Goetz said. (BCR aside: what, is this the Nordstrom vs. PF Chang's gang fight that's so legendary?)

"That is a prime example of folks like [Goetz's wife] and I who are transplants to the area, who are getting their first taste of the bias," Goetz said. "I think we're in the minority here, because folks before they even move here, are given that dose and that warning."

"27713 has become its kind of own little place. It's not really Durham, in a lot of folks' minds," he added. "I say, hey, where do you live? And they say Southpoint. They don't say Durham."

Comments

[Reyn]

Interesting but with only 60...very anecdotal and not really generalizable as far as saying anything that can be applied broadly.

[Jonn]

I have so many co-workers who live by Southpoint and often recount all the scary things that happen to them. They always say "I totally heard gunshots last night..someone got finished off." I think people around there have a perception of high crime that maybe isn't totally accurate? And that feeds into their concerns about crime that is stated above.

[Erik Landfried]

I agree with Reyn: 60 non-representative samples is not enough to base anything on (apparently it was enough for a 21 page report though).

[Scott Jennings]

I was about to jump in and try to come to the defense of the oft-maligned field of statistics, but then I read some of the methodology of the report - this thing was passed around online via listservs and social media, and they're pretending to calculate a response rate? Yikes. This might be cute for an undergraduate project, but I'd hope a professional outfit could spend a little bit of money on some science. Report ignored with prejudice.

[GreenLantern]

Do NOT believe anything posted on City-Data.com when it comes to real estate issues, or post anything that criticizes realtors! You will get banned or called a troll for even the slightest comment that questions how real estate agents, who make up a large portion of the long-time bloggers on the site, don't treat areas like Durham fairly, or purposefully steer people away from Durham neighborhoods. It's become a professional networking site set up for the benefit of realtors and developers, rather than a place to get accurate information about neighborhoods. It's a site that sets the bait for the trap.

Unfortunately, many young professionals and other transplants frequent such message boards to find out where to live and where to avoid, even if the so-called facts don't reflect reality. Why would an ambitious realtor want to waste time to list a 2000 sq ft home in east Durham for $150,000, when they could sell the same-sized home in Woodcroft or Hope Valley for $250-300,000? At a 7 percent commission, that's a $10,000 difference, with a greater chance of closing when those pricier, but affordable, neighborhoods are played up to young professional transplants by other realtors working together to create higher profit residential zones. They create fear to drive down prices in areas with high inventory, drive up prices in areas with lower inventory, drive less-successful realtors in poor neighborhoods out of business, which in turn drives away their competition.

[Em]

I would also consider parts of 27705 to be university-centric as well, Kevin. This includes anyone who lives in the 9th Street area (Erwin Mills, Station 9, just to name a few), the neighborhoods around/behind EK Powe Elementary, and continuing all the way to include people who live in all of the apartment complexes off Erwin/La Salle Street areas. A lot of 20-somethings who live in apartments live in these areas, or at least my friends do/did! Additionally it includes parts of Old West Durham and even Trinity Heights! (For example, I used to live just a few blocks from East Campus on Clarendon Street; my zip code was 27705 and my neighbors definitely identified themselves with the Trinity Heights crowd; another friend lived on Onslow near East Campus and her zip code was 27705 as well). Just FYI from my perspective.

[Liz]

Come on now. Why end with a quote like that? We South Durhamites love our city (all parts), we care about building a sense of community, and yes, we call it Durham. Otherwise, good piece highlighting issues common to all Durham residents. The analysis by zip codes just confirms. Safety, schools, smart growth.

[TH]

Wow! I live in 27713 and near Southpoint. And here I thought I was actually a civic minded, politically engaged resident of Durham. I had no idea that 27713 had become it's own "little place". Does that mean we are our own city now? Because I've got to send in my city property taxes soon, should I send them downtown or do we get to keep them here in South Durham for a few services in 27713? And is it the post office that I see about those change of address forms to switch my address from Durham, NC 27713 to Southpoint, NC 277???

Oh, wait, Goetz based all of this on 20 people's responses and his own biases. So I guess the other 30883 people who call 27713 home are just like those 20 people who responded to his survey.

[Scott Jennings]

From the post above: "'We would have liked to have seen more representation of Durham, especially ethnicity and by neighborhood/ZIP code,' Goetz said, calling the results "heavily weighted" towards majority-white areas."

And then from the report published on the Triangle Research Partners site: "The survey was administered electronically through the on-line tool, Survey Monkey, and was provided to young professionals throughout Durham by community listservs and social media, including Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. The survey was active from late September through mid-October 2009 and, at its conclusion, 61 young professionals from 40 Durham neighborhoods responded."

So, breaking news: the people who passed this around their social networks are similar demographically to themselves, and have a lot of the same concerns as their friends. And I've got $20 that says Goetz lives in 27713 himself. Also, I'm no social maven, but I've got another $20 that says I've got more than 61 friends.

Seriously, terrible. Seriously, seriously terrible. This is an "F" in any introductory undergrad stats course. No one should treat this as though it's an intellectually honest thing to draw meaningful conclusions from. Please learn your lessons and try again after a semester at Durham Tech.

[Bull City Rising]

Thanks for the thoughts, all. Couple of comments.

First, I should have noted that Nate was concerned about the low number of responses, and told me in our interview that he hoped this would be a modest start for future follow-up if folks are interested. I don't think Nate would have thought this a really deep number, which is one reason I shared the results in a more qualitative than quant fashion, since I think some higher-level trends of interest can still be seen.

Second, I'd note that the questions of connectivity and engagement I raised had more to do with young professionals, not residents as a whole. To be honest, in my 27701 neighborhood I don't see the level of engagement from younger professionals that I do from older ones, and based on the grad-student-heavy population in parts of South Durham, I hypothesized that might be contributory there, too. But much of the end of this post is based on my analysis and certainly not what's directly in the report.

Any survey is only as good as the underlying data. In this case, I think there's value in looking at the data at a high level, though not to the depth of too many particulars.

[Andy S]

Just out of curiosity, what is definition of "young professional"? Is there an income limit/minimum for this demographic as well as age?

<< 29 yr old 27707 Durhamite

[Natalie]

Our 27701 neighborhood is active across age and employment spectrums. It's actually kind of cool to see renters and owners across these two lines work together on neighborhood issues.

[Scott Jennings]

Kevin, I really appreciate your desire to have the conversation that the survey wants to have, but unfortunately, the survey is so poor that it's just not possible to put it into any useful context. It's 61 practically self-selected anecdotes - and if 61 folks got together and spoke with one voice, we'd take time to examine their agenda. I'd be much less weary of the low response rate if the responses were collected scientifically - and there's just not much scientific polling being done end-to-end over the Internet. (You can't select a random sample of a population over the Internet.) And the way this survey was "advertised" via social networks and neighborhood listservs (sure to skew any "engagement" metric right there) is surprisingly bush league from an operation that boasts of formal training and skill in this sort of research. You just can't "ask all your friends to fill out this survey" and do anything meaningful with the results, and they ought to know that.

If this is a modest start, that's fine, but a modest start for a research organization should still be rooted firmly in science. It's too bad.

[patrick]

After living in 27713 for a year now, I find it laughable the thought of the area being unsafe by anyone. Christ on a crutch, thats just silly.

Granted I come from Los Angeles but I've never seen a single gang banger since I've been here. And if I have, well id be reluctant to call them gang bangers.

South Durham is hardly unsafe. Its absurd for anyone, real estate agent or other wise to indicate as such.

And if they hear gunshots, perhaps they are mistaking them for the firing range off Hwy55 near Alston.

[Steve Nicewarner]

Just a side thought -- how much of the "Southpoint-centric" mindset is an echo the [now 15-20 year old]fight to keep Durham from annexing Parkwood? I'm sure some long-time residents of Parkwood would see that as sweet revenge.

[Tar Heelz]

Good to see that the In-Town v. S. Durham bickering still has life. :(

[Yolanda]

I responded to this survey. 61 young professionals is TERRIBLY LOW for a professional research organization. If he would have partnered with more organizations and got on the street a little, he would have gotten not only more responses, but also more diversity. I hope he is taking this as a lesson learned and will not seriously hock it to anybody as useful data.

At least launch it again and do it right...

[Nathaniel H. Goetz]

Thank you all for your comments. An op-ed is scheduled to soon appear in the Herald Sun which will address why we chose to do what we did with respect to this report, why we believe the information is useful, and what the hope is for it going forward. In the meantime, I invite you to contact me directly at (919) 451-9637 or nate@triangleresearchpartners.com.

Nate Goetz
President & Founder
Triangle Research Partners