The N&O's Bulls Eye blog reported Monday that the latest numbers from the City of Durham web site show that water demand for the month is averaging about 22.6 million gallons/day (MGD) -- about a 20% reduction over the April 2007 demand levels.
Is it time to break out the champagne and celebrate our newfound conservation? I'm guardedly optimistic, but it's by no means time to celebrate.
First off, Durham relaxed water restrictions on April 1, allowing limited lawn watering from city sources to again resume two days per week. But the Bull City enjoyed fairly regular precipitation for the first week of April, meaning we haven't yet seen what the impact of outdoor watering will be.
Secondly, and more importantly in trying to figure out how much Durhamites have actually reduced their water usage, is what the actual daily demand graphs look like:
On or around April 9, the daily water demand in Durham went up by about 2-3 MGD for four or so days. Though it's dipped back down since then over the last couple of days, we still can see in this the presence of a number of days of sustained, slightly-higher water usage.
I checked in with the always-helpful Vicki Westbrook in the City's water management department. This increase is apparently best explained as being due to the gradual warming in temperatures leading to a greater use of chillers and cooling towers for HVAC and other uses. And that's pretty clear from the data here, with water use heading back up on the warmer days, back down again as it's cooled off.
(Before folks ask, I already did: The fact that Durham was until April 1 drawing water from Jordan Lake via Cary is immaterial for this graph; this graphic reflects actual water demand regardless of whether it came from reservoirs or Jordan Lake.)
So what's the final verdict? To be honest, it's too early to tell. It certainly appears that more and more citizens are heeding the calls to conserve, but until we see just how high demand creeps up when hot weather gets here, we just don't know for sure.
But that's kind of the point: we really don't know yet how conservation will take off as a part of the public psyche, or whether we'll see a repeat of last summer's hot, dry weather. And this is why, contrary to what our Lockean friends think, the drought still is something we have to pay attention to, lest we end up right back at the same frustrating place.
As we've talked about here many times, increasing supply must be part of a reasonable answer, and to that end, the addition of Teer Quarry and a second intake into Jordan Lake will combine over the next few years to give Durham a liquid Sansabelt that would allow the Bull City's regular, desirable industrial, institutional and residential growth to continue for a couple of decades at least.
But Teer Quarry won't come on line tomorrow. Neither will a second Jordan Lake intake. Which is why conservation still has to be the name of the game for some time.
Not that people want to hear that message. I chatted briefly with City Councilman Eugene Brown about the drought this weekend at the Hard Hat Home Tour this weekend, and he expressed frustration that folks don't want to hear about the drought at a time when full reservoirs give the sense that we have enough water.
Unfortunately, I think he's right. Which is why it's critically important that it be rising temperatures, not declining awareness, that lead the daily demand levels to rise. It's the only certain way to keep this spring's full lakes we see from turning into a mirage by fall.
Be it through incentives for low-water-use fixtures, or a conservation marketing program (the elaboration and debate of which will hopefully provide more enlightenment as to the value the city would receive), the message needs to stay out in front of the public eye: we're not out of the woods yet.
The other thing to be looking at, Kevin, are inflows into the reservoirs. As of this morning, they're at a combined 73 cfs for Little River and Lake Michie. Or about 47 million gallons per day. That's the lowest they've been for the past 3 weeks or so. We've gotten minimal rainfall over the past 10 days. So there's been some restoration of the groundwater as a result of our wet March.
I keep hearing about a long term plan to raise the height of the dam at Lake Michie. With a project like that (expensive and long term to be sure) the water supply could be extended by another year or so, if more of the excess water running into the lake over the past month had been captured. Absent a true regional solution to the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand for water, i think Durham should be continuing the process of acquiring the land needed for this. Recognizing, of course, that it's always necessary to allow water to continue flowing downstream for environmental reasons.
Posted by: barry | April 16, 2008 at 09:29 AM