Infinity & Roxboro, and the North Durham shopping conundrum

At the most recent City/County Planning Commission meeting, the board voted to recommend approval of the rezoning of 28 acres on the northeast corner of the Infinity Road & Roxboro Road intersection in North Durham to support a mixed-use retail/office complex to be developed by Charlotte-based Crosland. A Target is rumored for the site (though whether that would morph into a Wally World by the time all is said and done would remain to be seen.)

I've gotten a fair stream of email over the past few months about this complex for readers looking for updates. Some have sounded in opposition to the project -- which does come perilously close to the Eno River -- but many more have supported the project in what sounds at times like a near-plea for more shopping options in the northern part of the city.

Retail options are pretty few and far between north of the I-85 freeway. There's the North Pointe retail conglomeration just north of the freeway, featuring a Costco, Kroger, Home Despot, and other chain stores. Oxford Commons off Roxboro has a few choices (though the rather rundown Wal-Mart's days seem numbered with the opening of the new SuperCenter off Glenn School Road) and a nearby Lowe's, and further north stand a Kroger and Food Lion along with a very small, outmoded Harris Teeter. But there's a scarcity of other retail options in this part of the Bull City. Heck, you have to go all the way down to Northgate for the nearest movie theater.

When I've talked with development folks about North Durham, the answer is always the same -- the demographics aren't there to fit the numbers that national retailers are looking for.

Well, I can't get my hands on numbers more recent than the 2000 Census. But let's take a look at what we have there. The numbers actually tell an interesting story... and perhaps one that is different than some would assume.

If you draw a circle 4 miles in radius from the intersection of Infinity and Roxboro, you find the following:

• Population: 45,817
• Per Capita Income: $22,743
• Median Owner-Occupied Housing Value: $119,763

The per-capita income levels are just above the state average ($20,307) and the national average ($21,587). Now, all that said, the numbers in this part of North Durham don't compare highly with areas like, say, the intersection of US 1 and I-540, where the Triangle Town Center mall sits supported by a population of 82,465 and per-capita income of $26,478. Then again, TTC has a Sak's Fifth Avenue. And I don't think that's something anyone in North Durham is looking for or expecting. If twice North Durham's population supports a regional mall with major department stores, shouldn't North Durham's population warrant something more than today's sparse options?

Let's look instead at two better comparisons, two solidly middle-class bedroom communities with shopping centers of the sort North Durham is missing: Garner and Knightdale.

Garner features the White Oak Commons, home to a BJ's, Kohl's, and Dick's Sporting Goods, plus a movie theater and Target. Its surrounding demographics? Population 30,456; per-capita income of $20,660; and a median house price of $113,115. All inferior to the Infinity & Roxboro site that has lacked modern retail options for years.

Or let's take a look at Knightdale, which now features both a Target and a Wal-Mart almost across the street from each other, along with the usual complement of retail businesses that flock with them. (And a clear aversion to affordable housing.) Its bona fides? Population 29,206; per-capita income of $22,960; and a median house price of $123,703.

Now, there are some other factors that play into these two Wake County towns' favor, notably the faster growth of Wake than Durham County, and the volume of pass-through commuters. But on the other hand, Claytonians driving US 70 home from Raleigh can always stop at similar shopping options in their cities. Roxboro residents, or residents in rural northern Durham County, don't have any similar 'other' options to choose from. And growth rates aside, North Durham already started 2000 with 50% higher population than these two other submarkets -- both of which have already seen retail growth in their necks of the woods.

Meanwhile, North Durham sits with yet another year gone by without the new Harris Teeter ever breaking ground at Willowdaile. (Yet a new HT is on the verge of going up a NC 54 and NC 751 in South Durham, barely sneezing distance from another store further east on 54.)

Assuming that concerns over the location can be met, it'll be good to see some more shopping options for North Durhamites. There's no question that they've waited a long time for it.

Comments

[bw]

You mentioned Roxboro and rural northern Durham county as having no shopping options to choose from. Actually there is a super wall-mart with a movie theater on 15-501 right on the southern edge of Roxboro near the Durham county line. I suppose it is still rather far to drive to if you live near Infinity road. But can't people be a bit more creative? Is north durham really clammoring for a big box strip mall of its own?

[Dan S.]

It's my opinion that the issue isn't so much that the demographics aren't there, it's that the developers don't want to foot the bill for transportation improvements that are so desperately needed in North Durham.

Infinity and Roxboro is a prime example -- the City and County both readily admit that the intersection is woefully inadequate for the current Infinity/Latta traffic and has no plans to address those needs until at least 2015. The primary stipulation for developers, like Crosland, is that their proposals include measures (and budget items) to improve the transit crunch around their developments. Ironically, the Durham County Manager lives not even a mile from that intersection, in my neighborhood, (where the median house price is in the low $200,000's).

It also isn't helping residents of northern Durham that developers seem to look at the southwestern part of the city/county with Tex Avery-style cartoon dollar signs in their eyes due to the explosive growth and skyrocketing property values. I'm guessing that's the driving factor as to why Harris Teeter has all but abandoned northern Durham. (The produce "department" at the Willowdale location looks as though it's been attacked by locusts, when it's fully stocked.)

[Dan S.]

@BW:

The Wal-Mart Super Center that you mention is 23 miles and nearly a half-hour from Roxboro and Infinity/Latta, assuming that there's no traffic. (And it's firmly inside Person county, inside the Roxboro city limits.) The Palace Pointe Cinemas are 21 miles from Roxboro St and Infinity/Latta, only a breezy 27 minutes of driving. (And it, too, is inside Person County.)

Roxboro, for comparison, has a population of just under 9,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. (Per capita income is just over $15,000.) Irregardless, Northgate is closer.

[Michael Bacon]

The one shopping center you didn't mention here, which I think is the sleeping elephant in the living room, is North Duke Mall, or what remains of it. I'm not sure what was there in its heyday as an enclosed mall, but it's clearly a shadow of its former self.

I think at some point, as the downtown boom reaches its crest, there will be an impetus to create small urban sub-centers in other parts of the city. For north Durham, the way I see it, at some point that's going to happen either around the stadium and hospital, or up at N. Duke mall near where Roxboro and Duke merge. That's a huge piece of land, which could be creatively redeveloped into its own mini-"downtown."

I understand the pain of those living up on Infinity, but I'm less than excited about lots of growth north of the river. The five bridges over the Eno in Durham County are already in pretty heavy use during rush hour, and Guess Rd. just got expanded. I'm a little worried that any big growth of shopping on the north side could trigger another building boom up there, making traffic across the river even more miserable.

So yes, more retain in North Durham by all means. But let's infill the south side of the river instead of sprawling the north side.

[Paul S.]

The Harris Teeter in Glen Lennox (Chapel Hill @ 54 & 15/501) was closed last week. I'm assuming that the new HT @ 751 & 54 is going to replace that one. Homestead Market is in trouble if HT pulls out of there. BTW, the new Garrett Rd connector is being paved today.

[David Wiehle]

Kevin,
Congrats on finding a fresh (and thoughtful) point of view on why building a new shopping center makes sense on paper. But, with respect, I think you've missed the point: "It's the traffic, stupid". The intersection of Infinity and N. Roxboro is overloaded right now. At 8:15 this morning, Southbound traffic through the intersection was backed up all the way to Goodwin Road (~5-7 minute delay). Most afternoons, northbound traffic is backed up beyond The Kroger Shopping Center at Seven Oaks Drive (roughly same delay). The potential traffic generated by a 300,000 SF shopping center is considerable. Fix the intersection, then build the shopping center. It just makes sense.

[Elizabeth T.]

I live near where the new Harris Teeter will go and am mystified as to how the demographic data can support this new store. With the other HT at Homestead Market and Kroger barely .25 miles up the road, a Food Lion closer than that, another HT in Meadowmont, and another on MLK, it doesn't make sense to me. Now if a Trader Joe's or a Whole Foods (or better yet, a Parker & Otis type place) were to go in, that would make sense to me. This section of Durham could certainly support a high end nutsy-crunchy grocery store, but another HT we don't need.

[Dan S.]

@Michael Bacon:

North Duke Mall, has only just barely slid downhill from it's heyday (at least since 1984, which is as far back as I can remember).

Roses has been a staple (no pun intended) there for decades, Kerr Drugs had a large store where the Papa Johns & Jersey Mike's currently reside, the Blockbuster used to be a Godfather's Pizza, Staples used to be one of the filthiest Winn-Dixie store I've ever seen and the interior of the mall held a comic book store, a used book shop, a fabric store and a picture framing joint. Aside from that, it seems like there's always been an insurance agent, and a non-descript Chinese take-out place.

[KH]

I hope the developers are looking for more of a village center type development that would be pedestrian accessible to the neighborhoods east of Roxboro Rd. Intersection improvements along the lines of Garrett/Old Chapel Hill would go a long way to improving congestion.

One reason that I constantly hear from people for not moving to North Durham is (drum roll)...there is nothing there. Few restaurants...limited retail. A quality development could spur the redevelopment of the other commercial areas at this intersection and probably down to North Duke Mall. [It is interesting to note that the neighborhood west of N. Duke Mall is laid out in a grid format.]

A quality development would attract more people to Durham's best secret. Homes from the neighborhoods around Infinity/Roxboro to Treyburn have historically been slow to sell...we need to make sure that there are more reasons for people to live here. There is limited population growth potential in the area north of the Eno due to our urban growth boundary and watershed districts for Falls Lake/Little River.

I just hope that Crosland works with the neighborhoods to create the highest quality development for North Durham.

[Kevin Davis]

Great points, all. Let me touch on a few of them:

First, traffic. I agree the area can be a nightmare -- one of my first trips to Durham, we needed to go by Burlington Coat Factory to pick up some missing winterwear, and we passed it by accident and kept going up Roxboro. At rush hour. Er, not a good idea.

Oh, here's what the Planning dept. staff had to say about this:

"Infinity Road has a capacity of 14,600 average daily trips (ADT) (LOS D) and the latest traffic volume is 7,600 annual average daily trips (AADT). North Roxboro Road has a capacity of 33,900 (ADT) and the latest traffic volume is 28,000 (AADT). New development allowed by the Plan Amendment would likely increase the traffic on Infinity Road and North Roxboro Road. The capacity of the area’s transportation system, as well as road improvements to deal with demand will be considered in detail at the time of the proposed zoning map change."

All at level of service "D," mind you, which Wikipedia defines as "perhaps the level of service of a busy shopping corridor in the middle of a weekday, or a functional urban highway during commuting hours: speeds are somewhat reduced, motorists are hemmed in by other cars and trucks." Well, sounds like N. Roxboro already -- except it isn't all that functional a lot of the time.

It will be interesting to see what, if any, traffic improvements Crosland proposes. This is definitely the big question mark in my mind about the plan.

North Duke Mall: I too would like to see something a lot more interesting here than the one-time indoor mall. (If you've never walked inside it to see what's now rentable business suites, you're missing out -- it's a trip. I need to run a Lost Durham series one of these days, this would be top on the list.)

The big problem for the area at Horton and Duke? The demographics aren't as strong. Per-capita income is $19,613, though population is higher at about 76,000 people. Still, these are the kind of numbers that make national retailers flee, even though the large population numbers mean there's often enough wealth built in to make the whole business quite worthwhile. (Take a look at some of the Durham urban neighborhood demo's sometime -- yet Brightleaf and other near-downtown businesses do fine even with high-end shopping and dining.

Eventually, a tear-down there and replacement with more mixed-use would be nice to see, but I'm sadly not holding my breath for that.

[chris]

I grew up less than two miles away from the Horton/Duke intersection. I didn't realize that it was such a blighted area.

I had always thought that the population demographics in that area were far superior to the rest of Durham, but I was probably looking at it from a football perspective. If the standard of living rises in that area, I hope that the kids don't turn soft, and that North Durham retains it's proud football tradition. Maybe they should name the new shopping center after this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewayne_Washington (although I'm probably missing some other great players from that area)

[Kevin Davis]

Hi Chris,

I certainly wouldn't call the area blighted -- it's a series of solidly working class and middle class neighborhoods. I mention the demographics as being "less attractive" from a national retailer perspective simply because that's the standard, fair or not, that outside firms are looking at.

[Tom Tuttle]

At first I was opposed to the development of the land on the corner of North Roxboro Rd. and Infinity Rd. I was concerned with the potential for increased traffic. What good is a significant increase in my home’s value and better restaurants and shopping options if I can get home after work? My wife (a horticulturist, certified arborist, and a friend of the environment) was also concerned with the environmental impact on the Eno River.

After researching the project on the city level, state level and visiting with the site planner we have changed our mind.

We live in a 300 plus home community on Infinity where I sit on the Board of Directors and no one would feel the impact of increased traffic more than us. Residents of North Durham have been complaining about the traffic caused by the intersection in question for more than a decade.

What most people don’t know is that neither the City nor the County of Durham are responsible for improvements at North Roxboro and Infinity. This stretch of road is maintained by the State of North Carolina, and to be honest it is not high on the priority list for the representatives in Raleigh. The City and the County have no plans to pay for improvements.

The simple fact of the matter, as described by state representatives, is the only way this intersection will get the attention it deserves is if the land around the road is developed.

Many of you remember that previous rounds at developing the West Point site failed. This had nothing to do with a lack of market. It had to do with roads and scale. Previous developments were too small and couldn’t generate enough revenue to pay for the nearly $2 million of road improvements that are required by the state. Crosland’s plan makes the site a little larger and added outlying parcels for restaurants, which will allow Crosland the necessary revenue to allocate funds to finally fix our intersection. The improvements are already included in Crosland’s site plan, so we don’t have to wonder or hope what they’ll do—it’s part of the approval process.

The developer and site planner have already submitted a Traffic Impact Analysis to the state for approval. The state will require Crosland to raise the intersection’s grade from the current “F” to a “D” level; putting it on par with most intersections in the state. Initially I thought that a “D” was appalling, but in fact this grade is not easily attained. The “A” level is almost non-existent and B or C grades are very rare as well…I suppose they grade on a curve.

It is important to understand that the state is pleased since they do not have to tap into their budget and because it is someone else’s money--the recommendations are quite extensive and include new dedicated turn lanes from all four directions.

The environmental impact will also be minimal. The worst potential impact on the environment will be the clearing of the land (tree removal) and preparing the land. Even here measures will be taken to section off the land and filter run-off. As required by the regulations of the Neuse River Basin, storm water from the development will collect in what is called a “Detention Pond” where it will filter out phosphorus and nitrogen then release the water, at a flow according to prevailing environmental guidelines, back into the ground. The United States EPA website notes that “the positive impacts from a wet detention pond will generally exceed any negative impacts.”

The final positive impact of a developed North Roxboro and Infinity is the effect it will have on the surrounding vacant commercial spaces, which are simply too small or too run down to support a Target or other national chain stores. Without any significant investment in North Durham our neighborhood economy will continue to fail. Businesses can not stay open in this area because residents drive past the local establishments on their way to South Point Mall or Briar Creek. An area where people live, shop, eat and are entertained will support more new businesses that are eager to invest in North Durham.

One final note: I don’t work for the developer or the site planner. I just live right next to the intersection in question, so I went and met with them and asked every question I could think of. I researched what they said and checked their facts. And I determined that this development is critical to the future of our neighborhood with minimal impact on traffic or the environment. I would strongly encourage all of you to get all relevant information before speaking out in favor of, or in opposition to, this and other (re)development projects. Do what I did: call HadenStanziale architects and see for yourself.

[Michael Bacon]

Tom: Thanks for the very informative and thoughtful response. I suppose it makes sense that because that's 501 headed north, it's the state's problem, but I hadn't thought about it.

Chris: Don't mistake Kevin's per capita income for median household income. Per capita brings kids into the equation, and always drops the number in areas where families live. It's the reason why most analysts use MHI, although it's harder to calculate from census data for arbitrary areas. (It's reported as part of the SF3 for block groups and tracts, but if you have to split or merge those, you can't really get MHI from the reported data.)

[Alex]

How might I find out what the Crosland Project architectural plans look like? I am in full support of this project occuring and live in the area. I see that HadenStanziale architects perhaps did the drawings (per a prior blog I read) but when I went to their site, they do not offer info/illustrations of projects i nthe proposal phase. Any info. is much appreciated.

[Tom Tuttle]

Alex: The people at HadenStanziale are very open to meeting with residents in the surrounding communities to discuss the plans. They can provide the illustrated site plans to you when you visit.

If you are interested in supporting the project please contact me at ttuttle@heraldsun.com to discuss upcoming events.

[carpedurham-ap]

There seems to be some construction activity on the NW corner of this intersection now (where the remains of some type of auto/tire place are). Anyone know what is up?

[David Rollins]

Is that a new bridge over the Eno going up at West Point? Please tell me they are going to segregate NB and SB traffic on their own bridges.