And, we're off to the races

So Thomas Stith announced for mayor yesterday, complete with a big press conference at City Hall. And, as both the Herald-Sun and a fellow blogger reported, automated phone-dialing to Durham residents, raising the issue of crime and suggesting it's time for a change in city leadership.

Stith came out striking what by now are familiar notes in his speech -- concerns over the crime rate, calling out the city for incompetence, and suggesting that city manager Patrick Baker, a Bell ally, needs to come in for a long, tough look by the new Council.

As the N&O points out in its very good analysis, the mayor doesn't have the power to solve all these problems directly, though where the manager's concerned, they certainly have quite enough power if they choose to remove Baker from office. The bigger question will likely be, given that Stith has also been the one opposition vote out of seven, how would a move to the center seat actually give him more ability to shape the agenda?

To be honest, I certainly haven't counted out Stith's ability to make a run at this, even as a conservative in a heavily-left city. Much will seem to come down to the vote in Durham's large African-American community. On the one hand, longtime Durham Committee chair Lavonia Allison has been sounding similar notes on taxes to Stith of late, including speaking out harshly on the cost of more bonds at a County Commission meeting. On the other hand, Bell reputedly holds as much power behind-the-scenes on the Committee as Allison does as its head. And the 2005 election was also a blow to its influence.

Still, one thing seemed very odd to me in Stith's announcement yesterday -- his claim that he had thought of getting out of local politics before the spate of homicides this spring. He bolstered this by bringing the young man shot in the stomach this spring to stand by Stith's side at the announcement.

Sorry, but this doesn't sit right with me. That shooting occurred just a few weeks before this City Council meeting, where Stith made a very light-hearted yet pointed comment about his mayoral ambitions. And Stith's been signaling his mayoral intentions brighter than a lighthouse's beam for over a year. To me, this was an unfortunate pandering to the public -- a moment where Stith was trying to exude a heroism and self-negation that just isn't accurate. Stith's been tasting the mayor's seat for some time, likely with a push from John Hood and his old friends at the Maxway/Rose's Raleigh Right Wing Establishment, and I just don't buy the idea of a 're-awakening' on the Councilman's part.

I don't think even many of the liberal persuasion in Durham, myself included, would disagree with Stith's assertion that local government could run better. (In fact, it's a frequent topic of conversation at most any civic meeting I attend.) I think a mayoral debate that includes same as a focus for discussion is actually a welcome thing. It wouldn't be a bad thing if this pushes Bell, a classic behind-the-scenes operator and a clear introvert to boot, to take more of a public voice in Durham leadership, either.

But let's dispense with the called-to-greatness grandstanding, no?

Comments

[barry]

Kevin - i don't think the left/right spectrum is the primary axis of politics in Durham. Racial politics remain key, but i think that neighborhood/developer issues are also important, and these don't necessarily correlate to liberal v. conservative.

So i don't know if Stith's conservative agenda hurts him so much, even in Durham.

You're right, though, to indicate that even in the Mayor's seat, if Stith remains the sole vote on any number of issues, there's not much he can do. Especially if the seat he currently holds goes to an unnamed neighborhood activist who is contemplating a run. One of the advantages of the weak mayor system, i guess.

This will be the first Durham election to take place while there's a semblance of a local blogosphere. I'm very curious to see what, if any, impact we have on the Council races.

[Chris]

I would guess that Stith's run for mayor is just a public audition for a higher office. I don't think that he has any chance of winning. Frankly, I don't think he could win his own City Council seat back. He BARELY won in the last election, and I think you could argue that he has less public support than anybody else on City Council. I'm sure he understands that his future in local politics is not particularly bright in this town.

If it looks like he can "play ball" at the political game in a bit more high-profile race, I'm sure that his prospects in the Republican Party are pretty good at the state level. I'll bet that this is the only real goal in this election, and that he knows that his chances of winning are "slim to none."

[Michael Bacon]

As I've said before, I don't think any of it neatly boils down to conservative/liberal, black/white, or anything else. This is still, first and foremost, an endorsements town, and I think if we as bloggers have any influence at all, it will be through that process. The 2005 election did show a bit of a crack in the Durham Committee's power, but there's still plenty left of it, and I think that school board election was the exception that proves the rule. If people have a reason to defy the endorsement slate, they'll stray, but in an election where keeping up with who's running takes a lot of effort, people rely heavily on the PAC+Indy structure.

In this election, the lines are pretty clear. Stith absolutely has to win the Friends of Durham endorsement, which given his small government stances he probably will, but the Friends have also been generally supportive of Bell. The PA and the Indy will go with Bell, unless someone else files. And while you're right that Lavonia has been making anti-tax noise recently, I'm not sure the whole committee is with her on that. I think Bell's connections probably win the day there, and he gets the nod. For Bell, PA + Indy + DCABP = third term.

My guess is that Bell serves one more two-year term as mayor, then probably either sees a challenge from the left, or he declines to run again.

By the way, Bell HAS actually signaled his intention to seek re-election, right? We're not due for an electoral bombshell here?